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Where will the property market go after 2020

Source: Guizhou Literature Network Author: Founder Date: 2020-12-12    

               Post-2020 property marketWhere to go

Gao Rongwei

 

The 2020 housing market is coming to an end。2020 is a very special year, it is not too much to describe once in a hundred years, under the epidemic, many investors have their eyes wide open, and they are concerned about every move of the property market。However, the reality makes them very frustrated, the real estate market under the cloud of the epidemic is like a fog, not very clear。The future of China's property market is uncertain。

Even after enteringIn November, many home buyers remained hesitant and wait-and-see。They are waiting, hoping to see the best time to buy。

    

      A tepid housing market


Compared with the hot in previous years, this year's property market has indeed cooled down, if you use four words to describe it, that is"Lukewarm"。This is especially true in light of the past months of September and October。With last year"Gold nine silver ten" hotCompare that to this year'sSeptember and October seem a bit "calm"。

According to a report released by e-House Real Estate Research Institute:Sales of new homes in 40 cities fell 3 per cent in October from the previous month"Gold nine silver ten" flat property market transactions。从The most critical of the "Silver Ten"十一Golden Week, focusThe sales area of new homes in 10 cities was 72.860,000 square meters, an increase of 1.6%If calculated according to daily sales, year-on-year decline11.1 percent, the lowest level for the National Day week since 2015。Under the pressure of regulation, housing enterprises are also obviously cautious in taking land。In October, the residential land market cooled slightly, and the planned construction area of the transaction fell by 7 percent from the previous month.1%, the total amount decreased by 15%.8%。E-house Research Institute report showsIn October, the construction area of land transactions in 40 typical cities was 54.73 million square meters, an increase of 1% from the previous month。According to the hospital data,In October, seven cities had a monthly land transaction volume of more than 10 billion yuan, most of which were cities in the Yangtze River Delta。Specifically, the turnover of Guangzhou and Shanghai reached 216 respectively.$200 million and 213.600 million yuan, Nanjing, Xi 'an, Hangzhou turnover was 139.4亿元、128.$700 million and 128.2亿元。世联EVS and Xiaozi data show that the weighted average price of housing stock in October was 23,634 yuan /㎡, with a monthly nominal increase of 0.16 percent, the rate of increase has narrowed for three consecutive months。

Look ahead。全国1-10The property market can only be said to be "normal"。On the whole, the real estate market cooled down significantly in the first quarter, but there were also differences。From the sales point of view, the first and second lines have cooled significantly, but the third and fourth lines are still positive。In the land market, because of the hot sales last year, housing enterprises have sufficient funds, so the enthusiasm for land is not low。Since May this year, the property market has rapidly stabilized, housing companies have increased financing and actively purchased land。Data show that from May to October, the market turnover of major cities in the country has significantly recovered compared with the first quarter, and the average online transaction volume has risen by 20% year-on-year, and the market continues to recover across the country。At present, most cities have gradually recovered to the pre-epidemic average level。 

Still, there are bright spots in the market's calm。Shanghai Centaline Real Estate Research InstituteAccording to a report released at the end of September, the transaction area of new commercial residential buildings in Shanghai in September was 104.90,000 square meters, an increase of 7.5%, up 45% from September last year。In terms of the new home market, at the end of September, Shanghai saw a "thousand people shake", Jing 'an Ying Phase II a total of 204 sets of housing, the number of effective subscriptions reached 1021 groups, and the subscription rate exceeded 500%。Shanghai's property market continued to heat up in October。The data shows that OctShanghai new house market turnover area of the whole city95.70,000 square meters, an increase of 77 percent year-on-year.9%, there are a lot of "explosive products"。The acceptance rate of Honglu Bay is 899.2%, 9 people grab 1 room;Panlong Tiandi attracted 3,715 sets of subscriptions, breaking the Shanghai market's two-and-a-half-year record for new subscriptions。

The Shanghai property market carnival in October, while opening the fourth quarter of the property market, may also be a hint: 2021, the first-tier city property market may not fall sharply?

    

      To buy or not to buy?


The current property market situation, so many people do not know whether to buy a house。For many home buyers, the choice between buying and not buying is a dilemma。

For buyers who just need to buy now, buying a house may be high。From the perspective of the general climate, the shadow of the global epidemic is lingering, and the European and American stock markets, which are Mired in the epidemic, are full of sorrow and terrible to see。Affected by the ongoing global epidemic, China's property market is hardly immune。In the past, a lot of people have"Full payment into the down payment, down payment into the garage" painful experience。If you do not buy now, next year's house prices may rise, if the property market reappears in the past glory, the future can not afford to buy a house?What's more, by the impact of the epidemic in a hundred years, the domestic property market is still standing, in the European and American economies a shrinking sound, China's economy is thriving, the scenery is only good here。From the end of last year until now, it can be said that China's property market has undergone a test of purgatory。

In the view of many people, the future of China's property market is bound to release long-term pent-up energy, and a sharp rise in housing prices should be a sure thing。Some economic experts say,Now that China's economy is rebounding strongly,The V-shaped trend is perfectly drawnThe property market is positively correlated with the trend of economic operation。As the Wall Street Journal put it:"While many countries around the world are still struggling to contain the coronavirus outbreak, China's recovery is gaining momentum."

Media reports,The GDP of the first three quarters of 2020 has been released, and the GDP of the third quarter is very bright, with a year-on-year growth of 4.It also shows how quickly China's economy has recovered。"Today, no one doubts that China's economy will return to pre-epidemic levels next year。”Jpmorgan ChaseJ.P.Morgan recently lowered its 2020 growth forecast for China from 1.3% was raised to 2.5%。Economists at the World Bank and other institutions have alsoHave raised their forecasts for China's economic growth。The world is bullish on China。According to the current economic data in China, the possibility of China's housing prices rising again is completely existing。

For investorsIf you can't judge the market accurately, it will be a disaster。So, how to judge the development trend of China's property market?"We know thatThe attitude of the state to the property market is very important, which basically determines the general trend of the property market。"Industry insiders pointed out。At the beginning of the New Year,On January 17, The General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Deepening Reform and Innovation to Accelerate High-quality Development" on supporting state-level New areas.Adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, implement the requirements for balance between jobs and housing, prohibit large-scale and disorderly real estate development, support reasonable demand for self-occupancy, and resolutely curb speculation in real estate。”5月22日,十三届全国人大三次会议开幕,国务院总理李克强作政府工作报告。李克强表示,“坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位,因城施策,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展”。日前,The state once again said: adhere to the house is used to live, not to fry the positioning。On November 3, Xinhua News Agency was authorized to publish the CPC Central Committee's Proposal on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Goals for 2035.,定调"Housing does not speculation", "rent and purchase simultaneously" and "because of the city policy" will remain the main tone of the property market policy in the next five years。《Again, the Recommendation,"Effectively increase the supply of affordable housing, improve the land transfer income distribution mechanism, improve the long-term rental housing policy, and expand the supply of affordable rental housing.。”

From the beginning of the year to the present, the state's attitude to the property market can be said to be consistent, that is, always adhere toThe positioning of "housing without speculation" promotes the healthy and stable development of the real estate market。The so-called "healthy and stable development of the real estate market" does not mean that the property market has ups and downs like a roller coaster, and it will no longer appear as "hard to get a ticket" in the past, nor will it fall as "cabbage prices" as some people have said.。In the history of our country's housing prices have been incredibly low, but after the advent of the commercial housing era, the situation can not appear again。"One vote is difficult to obtain" is by no means the "stable development" repeatedly demanded by national policies.。

In the context of national real estate policy,"Rational return" has become the new label of the property market。


      Where is the property market going


In fact, many people have noticed that the property market is releasing some important signals。"61 days of sales of 182 billion", "single month sales of 100 billion", "the first sale of 3.3 billion", "the opening mode of the day", "10,000 people rob a room is difficult to find"...Similar messages are streaming across the Internet。

On a national scale,On November 9, Centaline Real Estate Research Center released data showing that as of now, the land transaction volume of 40 first - and second-tier cities has reached 2.79 trillion yuan, up from 2.41 trillion yuan, up 16% year on year。Real estate Research Institute monitoring data shows that from the user behavior index,In October, the national house-hunting heat increased by 6.8%, the first-tier cities to find housing heat increased significantly, an increase of 18.6%, Shanghai in October to find housing heat rose 38 percent.8%;Shantou and Kunshan also had a month-on-month increase of more than 20%。Among the main cities, Shenzhen is highly sought after, and the average online price of new homes is 48,090 yuan /㎡。The average online price of new homes in Shanghai and Beijing ranked second and third with 47,963 yuan /㎡ and 46,435 yuan /㎡ respectively, and the average online price of new homes in Hangzhou led the new first-tier cities with 30043 yuan /㎡。

According to the hospital's data,Total transfer fees of 300 cities in the first half of 2020 2.54 trillion yuan, up 10% year on year。Specific to various cities, in the first half of 2020, the land transfer fee of Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou exceeded 100 billion, of which Hangzhou took 1756.$700 million to win。The market recovery is obvious。In terms of land transaction price, according to relevant data statistics,Land transaction prices in more than 300 cities are generally on the rise, and the average transaction price even exceeds the price in 2018 and reaches a new high。As the developer put it, "Land and house are like flour and bread.。The price of land bought by real estate enterprises has risen, so the development cost of this part of the increase will eventually take back profits from home buyers。It is self-evident whether house prices are going up or down。

But some experts are not entirely convinced。Zhang Bo, president of the Research Institute, believes that "the tightening of the financial side of the property market regulation continues to strengthen, and the overall heat of the property market is expected to cool down in the next two months.。"From the perspective of regulation and control policies, the overall tone is still stable and tight, especially the tightening of the financial side continues to strengthen, and the supervision of strict control of funds into the property market through abnormal channels continues to strengthen.。”

"Whether to buy a house or not?The property market in the first half of the year has returned to normal, and at present, the property market is developing in a healthy direction。Recently, the property market has been hit by heavy signals。At the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, the Central Committee set the tone of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the next 5 years and even 15 yearsThe development of the property market points out the direction。Earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the"Key Tasks for New Urbanization Construction and Urban-Rural Integration Development in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as "key tasks"),We will urge cities with a permanent urban population of less than 3 million to remove all restrictions on household registration.We will push cities with a permanent urban population of more than 3 million to basically lift restrictions on key urban residents settling down.We will encourage qualified type I big cities to remove all restrictions on household registration, and megacities to remove restrictions on household registration in new suburban areas。9月初,Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Returning Home to Rural Entrepreneurship",明确,Hunan will completely remove restrictions on household registration in urban areas with a permanent population of less than 3 million, county-level urban areas, county government towns and other established towns,We will fully relax the requirements for urban residency in big cities with a permanent urban population of more than 3 million。Although there is no information about other cities, I believe that other large and medium-sized cities will follow suit。

In accordance with the relevant policies of Priority Tasks, there is no doubt that2021 and the near future, mustThere will be a huge influx of people into the cities, and the demand for housing will surely rise with it。According to this logic, the buyers who are still waiting on the sidelines need to hesitate?Some experts admit: the future property market is always good just need, the future good opportunities to buy a house will only be more and more。

"Do not wait, white young head empty sorrow!”

 

       By Gao Rongwei:Sheqi County, Henan ProvinceEconomic review magazineDeputy editor-in-chief